2000 Oscar Picks

Judge Norman Short

March 23rd, 2001

Best Actor:
It seems a foregone conclusion that Russell Crowe will get this award. In my opinion it's even more likely than giving Gladiator Best Picture. Dark horse choice is Ed Harris for Pollack, a truly amazing performance, from an actor who has been nominated twice. I've gone back and forth between them for a week now, but I feel Crowe will win.

Should have been nominated: Michael Douglas for Wonder Boys. After seeing his performance, I'm still mystified he didn't get at least a nomination.

Best Actress:
Anybody going to bet against Julia Roberts this year? Not me. She's big, she's been nominated twice, and simply put it is her year. Dark horse candidate: A tie between Ellen Burstyn for Requiem for a Dream and Joan Allen for The Contender. Ms. Burstyn probably gave the best performance of them all, but her movie is such a downer I don't think it can win. I'd be delighted if Joan Allen got the nod.

Best Supporting Actor:
I have to go with Benicio Del Toro for Traffic here. Willem Dafoe for Shadow of the Vampire is the dark horse here; his performance behind makeup is astounding. If Joaquin Phoenix wins this one it is a hype driven win. I'd be very happy if Jeff Bridges wins for The Contender as he is one of the best underrated actors around. But this year isn't going to be it.

Best Supporting Actress:
Kate Hudson for Almost Famous is the front runner. She also happens to deserve the award, which is a nice plus. Dark horse nominee is Judy Dench for Chocolat, since the Academy will feel like they have to give Miramax something for their money. I still go with Kate Hudson.

Best Screenplay (Original):
Almost Famous is my pick. This will be the award given for reasons of guilt that it was passed over for its rightful nomination for Best Picture. Dark horse candidate is obviously Gladiator, since it is so hyped people will vote for it in categories it has absolutely no business winning.

Best Screenplay (Adaptation):
Wonder Boys is the rightful winner here, and will probably be the award given out of guilt that it also was passed up for inferior work in the Best Picture category. O Brother, Where Art Thou and Traffic are both dark horse contenders here. The Coen brothers gets a nod for the former and Traffic is a strong choice also. I'm still picking Wonder Boys.

Best Foreign Film:
Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon is such a lock in this category that nothing else need be said. It deserves the award as well. If it doesn't win Best Picture it will be because people felt comfortable with letting it go with this one instead.

Best Director:
Ang Lee won the Director's Guild award for Crouching Tiger, and they have a 95% accuracy in picking the Oscar winner, so who am I to disagree? My own personal pick would have been Steven Soderbergh for Traffic, and it is still the dark horse nominee that could pull off a surprise win. Conventional wisdom believes his votes will be split because of Erin Brockovich, but I disagree. That said, I can't go against Ang Lee; he is my pick to win, but would place second if I were doing the choosing.

Best Picture:
Conventional wisdom would be to bet on Gladiator, which has the machinery firmly in place and is a 'big' picture. My own personal choice is Traffic, which was the real Best Picture this year. That said, it is a disgrace that Almost Famous and Wonder Boys weren't nominated. I would have been very happy if either had gone home with the gold guy. But they weren't, and we can only rail against the marketing machine. This year the choices get really dicey. Crouching Tiger is a valid choice, and I wouldn't be surprised if it won. Traffic should win. But with tears in my eyes and a shocked feeling in my soul I believe the winner will be Gladiator, and baby Jesus will weep.