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Judge David Ryan • Location: Natick, MA
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The HSX Report - 5/31/07
May 31st, 2007 12:13PM

It looks like the Pirates shock has passed, and things are once again back to normal on the Big Board. We're now a day away from Knocked Up -- a HSX Report recommended stock -- hitting theaters. It's been trading in the H$80-85 range fairly steadily for the past few weeks, meaning the market is looking for about a $27-30M opening box office take. I still think this is a film that could do $50M of business on its open... but I guess we'll see, won't we?

No feature today, due to the large slate of IPOs today. Plus, I can't think of anything to spotlight. So on to the gal who's tall and tan and young and lovely....

The Girl from IPOne ma (yes, I've been spelling it wrong all this time....)
Four IPOs today, each of which merits serious consideration...

(1) Old Dogs (OLDOG) -- H$30
A John Travolta/Robin Williams buddy comedy, that sounds like a modified version of Three Men and A Baby. As Wild Hogs showed, these movies tend to do solid business if they're released at the right time (i.e. when they have no competition). Plus, it's directed by one of the founding members of Steely Dan. (What? Different Walt Becker? Um... never mind, then.) Strong buy.

(2) Six Bullets From Now (SXBLT) -- H$16
It lacks true star power (although Josh Lucas and Lena Headey are certainly far from obscure names), but the story is compelling, so it could be a decent film. Interesting thing to note: this one is a resurrected stock. It was IPOed in 2001, then delisted in 2005, but is now being re-IPOed because the project is active again. I'm on the fence here.

(3) Ira & Abby (IRABY) -- H$3
Good directoral pedigree (Jennifer Westfeldt), and very positive reviews (from its festival appearances), but mostly unknowns in the cast. Has been picked up by Magnolia Pictures, but no release date has been set yet. At H$3, I think it's a good -- but risky, as all indie films are -- buy. This could be a sleeper.

(4) Steel City (STLCT) -- H$2
Note the release date: last Friday. It's currently playing only in NYC, and MAY receive an expanded release later. If you have H$100,000 to waste, go ahead and buy it. You may make some cash if everything breaks in the film's favor. But the odds are that this film will delist at H$0.08 or something, so I'd recommend avoiding it.

That's it for today. Remember, comments and suggestions are always welcome; please pass them along at Excelsior!

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