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Judge David Ryan's Blog
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The HSX Report - 6/2/07
A special weekend update -- and a late one at that, due to my being easily distracted by pretty girls -- to discuss today's weekend IPO. So without further ado...
The Girl from IPOnema
Sgt. Rock (SGROC) -- H$30
Well, it's got an easy premise to describe: "An action-adventure version of Private Ryan". It's set in WW2, which people understand -- it's not some alternate-universe-where-mutants-walk-among-us film. It will almost certainly be dumb fun at best. Since Arnold can't play the role -- he's got another job, and Sgt. Rock really can't have a German accent -- you've got a number of possible ways to go with casting. It also very well could suck donkey balls.
So the bottom line here is: I don't know. HSX is IPOing it on a Saturday, though, which means that they think it has blockbuster potential. You'll rarely lose money in the short run on these Saturday offerings, so go ahead and put a little money into it if you like. But comic/superhero films are a crapshoot. For every Spider-man, there's a Daredevil.
Mini-feature: Screens, screens, screens!
How do you learn this evaluation technique? Well, just pay attention for a few weeks. See what the per screen earnings for certain films are, and see how they change from week to week as films go through their release cycle. After a while, you'll get a big enough basis for comparision that you'll be able to see "2485 screens" and come up with a reasonable range of box office by instinct.
That's a lot of math for the weekend. Sorry about that. Have a good rest of the weekend, and see you Monday. Excelsior!
*Obscure Larry Niven/Jerry Pournelle reference.