Blog From The Bench

Happy Monday! Today, your IPO report and a wrap-up of the weekend.

The Girl from IPOnema
Two offerings today -- one highly intriguing, and the other highly intriguing... but not a good buy. To wit:

(1) Money Never Sleeps (WALS2) -- H$25
I really didn't get much past "Michael Douglas reprises his role as Gordon Gekko". A sequel to Wall Street is absolutely going to be a big, big film... if it moves past the development stage. Mike's had a pretty poor run of critical success recently (You, Me, and Dupree???), but he's an honest-to-God Movie Star, and can still open films fairly big based on his name alone. H$25 seems cheap for a potential blockbuster, but keep in mind we (a) don't know how solid a project this is, and (b) don't know when it is potentially targeted for release. Still, the potential rewards outweigh the risks here. Buy!

(2) The Counterfeiters (CNTRF) -- H$3
For some reason, HSX prices every documentary feature (other than Michael Moore films) at H$3. And all but maybe .01% don't even delist at H$1. Come on, HSX! Throw us a bone and IPO one of these docs at H$30 so we can make a killing shorting it! Well, anyhow.... This sounds like a really fascinating film, but is it going to be the next March of the Penguins? No. Pass.

Today's Feature: Weekend Update
The official HSX box office totals for this weekend's openers:
Knocked Up -- $29.284M
Mr. Brooks -- $10.02M
Gracie -- $1.35M

And your returning blockbusters:
Pirates 3 -- $43.2M ($216.5M two-week total)
Shrek 3 -- $26.7M ($254.6M three-week total)

So what does this mean? Well, one thing jumps out at me -- Short Shrek the Third!!!! SHRK3 is trading at H$300 right now. It's NOT going to have a $50M weekend next week, especially after dropping over 50% of its B.O. in consecutive weekends. We're looking at a delist in the H$270 range -- so that's H$30/share of shorting potential there. Jump on it!

There may -- may -- be profit left in KNCKD, too. After its adjust, it's been increasing in price, because it's getting extremely positive critical and word-of-mouth buzz. As Your Humble Servant said a couple of weeks ago, this one could be a snowball film -- starts well, and gains momentum in its second and third weeks. This could be at $100M in a month, leading to a tidy profit.

That's it for today. Enjoy your hard-earned profits if you've got them. Excelsior!