Hello and welcome to the inaugural HSX Report. Which is a terrible name... so if you have any suggestions, please feel free to send them along or post them in the Witness Box. Second, I forgot to mention this last week, but this recurring blog column is the kinda sorta half-debut of Cinema Verdict, our new site devoted to theatrical films, which will be fully and properly launched in the very near future. At that point, this blog will move over there to its permanent home.

Well, with the housework out of the way.... let's look at the weekend. Shrek the Third, predictably, led the pack for the weekend, taking in $122M in box office. Going into the weekend, I thought that SHRK3 was undervalued even at H$302 (it had been trolling around the H$300 mark for a couple of weeks) -- glad to see I was right in that. The H$32 adjust made for a lot of profit, and buoyed the values of both Shrek 4 (SHRK4) and -- wait for it -- my Saturday IPO recommendation, Puss in Boots (PUSNB) PUSNB leaped as high as H$76 on Sunday after its IPO, making for an impressive 25% gain had you followed my investment advice. (And you did... right?) Of course the profit-taking has begun in earnest, with SHRK3 dropping H$8 per share and PUSNB back down to a more realistic H$65. PUSNB remains a hold -- for now -- while you're probably okay giving up your SHRK3. With Pirate Weekend coming up fast, our beloved ogre might have a problem hitting $350M in four weeks.

Free money note: the Calendar is listing two securities that are delisting Tuesday due to a lack of a theatrical release: The Hard Easy (HRDEZ) and The Mistress of Spices (MSPIC). Short them to the max right now. It's small change, but it's free money.

The Girl from IPOnima

Moving on to today's IPOs, we have a tough-to-call pair on our hands:

(1) Mr. Peabody and Sherman (MRPBS) -- H$25
Yet another Rocky & Bullwinkle character gets the cinematic treatment -- this time, it's the smart dog and his pet boy who gave us back-door history lessons and bad jokes. Well... we all know how well the other R&B films turned out. And Peabody/Sherman is a thinner joke than the rest. On the other hand, it's got Stuart Little director Rob Minkoff behind it. I project this out as a kids' film at best, but kids's films can make money. This one's a gamble, and a relatively expensive one at H$25. You might want to wait and see with this one.

(2) Ponyo on a Cliff (PONYO) -- H$5
No, it's not an REM song. It's the latest animated feature from Hayao Miyazaki. Miyazaki's only real commercial success in the US was with Spirited Away, and even that only made $10M. The follow-up, Howl's Moving Castle, didn't even make $5M. Miyazaki's films are beautiful and artistic, but right now, they're not very commercial. Still, if it's any good, and Disney decides to give it a good, hard push, I could see it making $15M. And a 300% return over a year or so isn't a bad return. Buy.

My name is Bond... StarBond

I don't invest in the StarBond market much, because it's too difficult to arbitrage. However, one recommendation came up in the Witness Box, and it happens to be a value buy that I spotted myself. It's Shia LaBoeuf (SLABE). LaBoeuf has two high-gross films -- I, Robot and Constantine -- coming off his TAG, with three potential $100M+ films -- Surf's Up, Transformers, and the fourth Indiana Jones film -- waiting in the wings. Right now, his bond is at a hugely cheap $38. Buy, buy, buy!

Coming tomorrow -- a look at this season's blockbusters, and some potential for huge profits therein....

Hey all! Beginning Monday, look in this space for a new blog covering the Hollywood Stock Exchange and my own brand of guaranteed-to-possibly-work investment "advice". So are you thrilled? What? You've never heard of HSX?

Well... the Hollywood Stock Exchange (www.hsx.com) is a long-standing "game" involving the trading of securities based on movies and actors/actresses/directors. Once upon a time it was merely a lark -- albeit a technically sophisticated lark -- used only by Hollywood "insiders" -- and by "insiders" I mean the rank and file of cinematic life, not Bruce and Demi and their buddies. Over the years, it has turned into a VERY sophisticated modeling tool that's actually owned by the huge investment firm Cantor Fitzgerald. (HSX has proven to be highly predictive, and Cantor bought it with an eye towards developing the underlying software into something that could be predictive in the stock market... but I digress.)

Anyhow, the concept is simple. You start with $2,000,000 in "Hollywood dollars", and you buy low and sell high. Since films and actors don't have intrinsic financial metrics such as free cash flow and EPS, the securities are ultimately valued based on more entertainment-related metrics. For films, it's a simple two-pronged calculation: the Monday after a film opens, its market price is adjusted to 2.9 time the film's domestic box office (gross) over the weekend. So if Shrek 3 takes in $100M in B.O. this weekend, on Monday it would be adjusted to $290 per share. Four weeks later, the security is "redeemed" at a value equal to its domestic B.O. over those four weeks. So if Shrek 3 actually earns $500M by its fourth weekend of release, the security will cash out ("delist" in HSX lingo) at $500/share. With me so far?

Bonds -- which represent actors or directors -- are a bit more complex. Bonds are valued based on the "Trailing Average Gross" of the star. For HSX purposes, this is the straight average of the total delist prices of the star's last five credited films. (Generally, a star is credited towards a film if they have any sort of a significant role that exceeds a mere walk-on.) Every Tuesday, a raft of bonds are adjusted as movie stocks delist and the stars that were in them get a new data point on their five-film TAG.

What makes the game interesting and challenging is that pretty much EVERYTHING gets a security, sometimes when it's only a concept. For example, maybe there's just an "idea" floating around town that it would be really cool to actually make Aquaman and cast Adrian Grenier in it. You'd probably see an Aquaman security pop up on HSX, at a low issue price (because the film is highly speculative at this point). Say, maybe, $6. Well, you can buy up shares in that stock (you can buy up to 50,000 shares of a security, or 10,000 bonds) at $6 (which is a pretty low price) -- if you buy the max, that's H$300,000 you're putting on the table. Well, maybe the film never gets made -- the less buzz there is about it, the lower the price will sink. If it's clearly dead, the security will delist at zero. You're out your H$300,000 at that point. But hey -- maybe the Entourage people are really into it, and Spielberg signs on, and Sony Pictures throws $550M at its budget. Well, now you've got a real, live blockbuster on your hands. Maybe the stock soars to H$200, and your little stake is now worth H$10M. Woo hoo!

So there's your introduction to the HSX. And I haven't even mentioned the mutual funds, or the fact that you can short stocks. If only it were real money.... Actually, if it were real money, I'd be retired by now. My original H$2M stake from back in 1998 or so is now worth about H$270,000,000....

Coming Monday, you'll be seeing a daily column with tidbits and advice on the day's IPOs, the day's movers and shakers, and upcoming releases. Come along for the ride -- it's free and non-fattening!

Here's your first tip: the films with the biggest obvious potential are almost always IPOed on Saturday. Why? To drive traffic to the site on weekends, when people aren't killing time at work. This weekend, in honor of Shrek 3, we're getting Puss In Boots (Ticker symbol: PUSNB), a spin-off of the eponymous Shrek character. I'm cautiously optimistic about this one, even at its issue price of H$60. On the plus side, it's an attractive character who can almost certainly carry a film on his own. On the minus side, this was originally intended as a straight-to-video feature, but Dreamworks had second thoughts and decided to push it theatrically. There's nothing to guarantee they won't change their mind again. Tread cautiously.... Still, I think a good short-term gain can be had here. Go for it.

See you on the trading floor... Excelsior!

Saturday morning, 10:30 am, and I'm sitting in the movie theater, surrounded, as I knew I would be, by children. Even at PG-13, Spidey draws the brats; and at 2 hours and 20 minutes, I know they won't last.

And they don't. They stomp their feet, talk, sing into the soda cups, get up out of their chairs, and make all other manner of ruckus.

And I don't. Oh, I stay until the end, but I found my attention drifting on several occasions in this latest installment in the franchise.Spider-Man 3 has its moments, quite a few of them, but it also drags at parts.

Whatever I say here is irrelevant as you've already made up your mind on this one. And, honestly, I can't garner enough emotion either way. I'm not screaming that this was either a great or a bad movie. It simply is, fairly average, fairly unexceptional, fairly acceptable for a $5.00 matinee.

You'd think a movie that contains Spidey, MJ, Gwen Stacy, dark Spidey, Venom, Goblin Jr, and Sandman wouldn't be average. It couldn't and shouldn't be average with that much going on. Yet it is. My biggest surprise comes in the fact that all of them get their time in this movie. They all add some little thing to the plot, but not all of them are all fleshed out. Did we really need this much lore in one movie? Not really. Sandman could have been totally excised, Venom wasn't totally fleshed out, and so forth; but somehow it's all meshed together to make a cogent narrative about redemption and acceptance.

So we get development with Peter and MJ, Peter and Harry, Peter and Aunt May, and Peter and himself.

But do we go to see Spidey for these things? A little bit, yes. The first two films brought great character drama to the screen, helping to make this overall trilogy more than a simple summer spectacle. But we really go for the action, and there's some interesting and fun action moments in this one. You'll go away happy with those moments, but I think I wanted more. With so many nemesis, you'd expect more fights - at least I did - but there aren't that many. Then again, being 3 hours since I left the theater, maybe I've forgotten some already.

That, I believe, will be the legacy of Spider-Man 3: You feel like you get your money's worth while watching it, but you'll simply forget it as soon as you leave the theater. It won't leave as lasting as impression as the first two.

Spider-Man 3, you've already made up your mind. I don't think this is going to be the one we're talking about at the end of summer.

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And one thing that I want to mention but couldn't find a place above is the poorly placed gag with J. Jonah during the big climax fight. Jonah's camera joke could be funny if it didn't take about a full minute during this pivotal battle. It's so stunningly jarring that it stalls the battle. Very, very bad placement.

Today is my first trip to the theater in 2007. I actually don't even remember the last film I saw in a theater in 2006, but I'm thinking it's been close to 9 months since I plunked down $7.25 (for a matinée!) for a movie. What finally pulled me out of my doldrum? If you didn't skip the title, then you know it's Nicolas Cage's latest entry into the action genre, Next. Of course, bibliophiles, don't confuse this with Michael Crichton's latest piece of fiction. Then again, I doubt bibliophiles read such banal fare.

So, what do we have here? We have exactly what the trailer shows us. Nic plays Cris something-or-other, a man with a bad haircut who can see two minutes into his future. Julianne Moore plays some overacting, tough-as-nails FBI agent who has figured out what Nic can do. She decides she must recruit him in the hunt for a nuclear device that has been smuggled into the country by some odd cabal of Russians, French, and other assorted Euro-trash.

The only reason I decided to see this film is because I was in an action rut. I don't know the last mindless action flick I've seen, so that's what prompted me to see Nic do his future thing. Supposedly based on yet another Philip K. Dick story, "The Goldman Man," Next is, sadly, generic action fare. In actuality, it's barely action fare in my book, with just a few chases and the climax. I came looking for action and left wanting more.

Next is trite and light. Nothing much impressed me, leaving this one to be completely disposable and forgettable. Was it worth going to the theater? Nope. You're much better off waiting for a cheaper rental at home, for the acting is iffy, the action is lacking, much of the CGI is horribly obvious, and the ending is a bit cheap.

At least we have Jessica Biel in some nice panties, but even her hotness - which prompts Nic's character to unexplained weirdness, which too is never resolved - doesn't make it any better.

I guess I should say something slightly more positive. Well, I liked when we got to the point where Cris walked around with no cares, with full impunity. That cockiness was fun to watch. And when Cris did his future thing, more often then not, it brought forth a little chuckle (from pretty much the entire audience) seeing him manipulate events to his betterment.

Tonight, I've rented Deja Vu and I hope that'll give me all the mindless temporal action I'm wanting. Definitely a rental.

Grade: C+

I just want to start off by saying I am getting the feedback that's sent to me but quite a bit of it is spam so at first I wasn't reading it. The legitimate ones, from redrocker96 and shaylin_5, were received but for some reason I couldn't respond to them. I got some error message about an address system that's makes it invalid or something..whatever. Anyway I'll respond to them here, hopefully you two will actually be reading this...

Open Water 2
I love how all these morons on here describe this as such a "dumb" and
horrible movie when they think movies like Shrek and The Matrix and Lord of
the Rings are great movies. Get bent! This movie was awesomee and I hope
there is an Open Water 3 so I can buy about 10,000 copies of it and inspire
them to do an Open Water 4. Morons.

Well you gotta love constructive criticism. There isn't much to say here except I'd appreciate it if people told me why they think my opinion is worthless rather than just calling names. Allow me to demonstrate:

It's one thing to have a silly plot. It's another thing to have a silly plot that you claim is a "true story" in order to justify it. And it's a whole 'nother problem to do all of the above, throw in some cliches and then ask me to care. I just didn't. The second they were in the water I figured they'd lock arms and boost the lightest person up. Or have a lighter person climb the rope. Or have someone smart enough to, you know, put the ladder down in the first place! I mean were none of them planning on a bathroom break? The whole story was just ridiculous and baby plot device crying at every convenience was enough to make me gag.

Now, I'm glad you enjoyed it but as I mentioned earlier -- criticism is not the same as ad hominem. If you're just going to attack then what's the point of giving feedback? It certainly isn't going to change my mind.

Avatar - The Last Airbender
I agree totally. I am KRAZY about Avatar! I think it's even to the point of obsession. I'm okay with it though. I LOVE IT! Especially ZUKO! I love his latest and greatest hair-do (Crossroads of Destiny hair-do) I waited, thankfully, for the box set and am extremely pleased with it. (i frown upon the single DVD's) I even managed to get several friends just as obsessed as me. (though, Zuko's still mine ;D) hee hee. Thanx for the review!
PS- you've got a good sense of humor. I always enjoy the voice of the Avatar community. I've never met an Avatar fan I didn't like yet.

Glad to hear from a fellow avatar psych..err...fan. I'm glad you enjoyed the review. Now all we have to do is wait for the box set and we can right back into the swing of things. It's always baffled me that things like a "collectible comic book" are seen as reason enough to shell out lackluster dvds. Anyway, the compliment at the end is much appreciated, and I have to return the sentiment...
PS - I'm not obsessed or anything, but I can safely that Zuko is mine ;)

COMING SOON
I have plans to update this with some pictures from a semi-recent trip to Africa plus some pointless ramblings from the corners of my mind a.k.a. blogging. Hopefully they'll come together a little faster than this one did, what with school and all.

Speaking of which, I'd like to express my condolences to all those who were lost in the Virginia Tech killings of a week ago. I'd also like to thank NBC for giving the killer exactly what he wanted by glorifying and sensationalizing his actions with the on-air release of his "package." I'm sorry, I just felt it needed to be said.

Everyone have a great week...