let's predict for 2010. Games, movies etc...

[mkiker2089]

The nostalgia thread went well so I want to know what people think of 2010. Anything goes as far as I'm concerned. Think we'll have flying cars for example then tell us why.

I'll start.

Wii HD- I say no. Nintendo is testing the waters with the DS right now to see what people think of buying new hardware. The DS Lite continues to sell, DSL software rules the roost, and the DSi XL is predicted to be a non starter. I think Nintendo knows that sticking with the billions of people who already own a Wii is smarter than splitting the market. If a new Wii comes out I say mid 2011 at the earliest.

PS3 will gain market share but won't overtake the Xbox in North America. It will bolster it's position as third place and hold a comfortable market. The PSN however will grow and Sony will become a major competitor to Amazon VOD. PSP is dead but will remain as an add on to the PS3 for a niche market.

Xbox will lose market share with Natal. People will instead go for the more traditional schemes via the PS3 wand and the Wii. Xbox will however hold it's second place spot and will continue to have strong franchises.

Streaming Media will grow at an exponential rate as revenue streams are worked out. Netflix will be the low cost leader adding newer movies sooner for limited windows. Amazon and the PSN (others too I think) will add specials to further tempt people similar to amazon's current buy a movie get the VOD rental. Expect to see season sets going cheap and movie bundles in the future.

Blu Ray media will hold steady and grow slightly as prices drop and people with Blu Ray players start adopting software. Computers will start adding Blu Ray at a larger scale.

DVD will drop as DVD buyers start streaming.

Blu Ray players will start selling better with price drops, better TVs and people realizing that they upscale DVDs. As people want new DVD players they will finally see BR as an alternative. Despite that hardware sales will remain slow as people are hesitant to spend during a recession.

We will NOT see flying cars because GM is paying off congress to hold us all down. A flying car prototype will be built but in a modern Tucker twist the car will be lost to a terrorist attack and the designer killed by a rare strain of swine flu.

anyone want to argue? Am I right?

[barnaclelapse]

I refuse to believe your pessimism about flying cars.

[Dan Mancini]

Blu Ray media will hold steady and grow slightly as prices drop and people with Blu Ray players start adopting software. Computers will start adding Blu Ray at a larger scale.

Despite flagging consumer spending and a poor job market, I think Blu-ray will grow more than slightly (especially since its relatively low market share means it doesn't have to do booming numbers in order to show big year-over-year improvement). Sub-$200 players and a fairly dramatic drop in the software pricing model (not to mention dirt cheap HD displays, and the recent significant price drop on PS3s) will result in retailers moving plenty of BD hardware and software at the end of '09/beginning of '10 -- not nearly as much as if we were in a healthy economy, but more than enough for BD to exceed slight growth. The format will never do DVD numbers (that ship has sailed), but it's already transcended being a LaserDisc-style niche format. I suspect it has enough of a toe-hold now that it'll make a decent run over the next five years or so as the infrastructure for streaming content experiences inevitable growing pains.

And I say that as someone who once thought the format was pretty much DOA.

[Dimwitted]

On the "hardware" side BR is secure in that production of discs doesn't need anything more special than what's already there. That gives the format serious legs since manufacturers don't need to do any more investment to produce BR's. It'll last as long as DVD's will. The biggest issue, which The Verdict has been pointing out, is on the software side, indifferent mastering leading to poor or a least indifferent discs. Not much impetus to change if you can't *see* the difference. Sadly, some of the studios have a history of releasing crap. That'll kill the format faster than anything else.

That said, next year is going to be big on the industry front. Disney has already scaled back, MGM is toast and there's a sea of red ink out there. I think that there will be a change where the "name" studios will scale back on everything except the very large tentpole type movies. All other releases will be made by smaller studios and the majors becoming just distributors.

There's going to be big pressure on salaries, especially the Stars. You're also going to see the gradually released flick gain more of a foothold. They won't try to open extremely wide to front load the box office. With "word of mouth" now worldwide at lightspeed the idea of fooling the marketplace on a stiff isn't working.

In 2010 will the MPAA admit defeat? Their anti piracy efforts aren't doing much it seems and DRM discs are very much a failure. I can't tell. The bastards are really stubborn.

[BrettCullum]

I just broke down and bought a BluRay player... but I still don't see it ever getting up to the craze that DVD was throughout this decade. The "aughts" were good for digital physical media, but seems streaming is where the future is. Blame your iPod and Kindle, both have which have surpassed any wildest expectations. They have proven people will accept not having a physical format. You'll see movies and rental services flipping more and more to streaming, and we'll see all those boxes that allow televisions to receive content wirelessly.

Television will have to figure out what to do. Broadcast will slip lower down the pole as you get "on-demand" wireless content. The "schedule" of planning where shows go in what time slot will matter less and less. Not that this will all transpire by the end of 2010, but you'll hear talk about it bubbling up throughout the year.

I can't believe Nintendo would release a new Wii, but then I never saw the new DS coming either. The handheld segment seems to be more open to new hardware, but it would be a shame to see Wii splinter anything. But does that system have legs? I think it is cute for families, but every kid I know is selling theirs off saying they aren't loving it when compared to the XBox or PS3. I think we'll see Wii slip further down the pole in 2010.

I think Honda will be the first to release the flying car that runs on solar power.

[Steve T Power]

Gaming - The PS3 will continue to close the gap, possibly even surpassing Microsoft's install base by the end of 2010. Sony is really the only competitor out there that continues to cater to the PS2/Xbox era of gamers without focusing on add-ons or superfluous online features. The PS3's own abilities will continue to diversify, and by the end of the year, there will be some kind of subscription plan for PSN, though online gaming itself will remain strictly free. I see the PSP actually hitting a sort of second renaissance as more software of better quality appears and the machine becomes more interlinked with the PS3. I forsee blu-ray features that allow the PSP to serve as an advanced remote for films, along the same lines as the current tech with iphones and itouch's. There's still some life in the platform, and as the 3000 model and the PSPgo replace the older hardware, the lower piracy rate will make the system appealing to third parties again.

The 360 will continue to slide, and by this time next year Microsoft's anemic 1st party support and shifted focus to "flash in the pan" tech like Natal will have them teasing the 360's replacement. Natal will hit big, but lack of true innovation and a meager offering of product will cause it to diminish rapidly in the face of strong software on both Sony and Nintendo consoles. Crackdown 2 will be embraced by the fans of the first, and will break a million, but will vanish pretty quickly. Halo Reach, on the other hand, is a safe bet for at LEAST 4 million units moved. Hopefully E3 will give Microsoft owners something more to look forward to than just Natal, as they've got nothing for the rest of the year at present. You're going to see a lot of exclusive 3rd party offerings, but they're going to come from lesser known developers and consist mainly of half-assed PC ports like Risen and Divinity II as smaller companies scramble to get a piece of the pie before the system shifts off into the sunset over the next 2 or 3 years(2010 is the machine's fifth anniversary).

The Wii will continue to dominate, as Nintendo continues to shift from "gimmicky" product to more satisfying software for casual and hardcore gamers alike - A new "true" Zelda title is promised, and everyone is in love with New Super Mario Bros - deservedly so. There's also a new Metroid that looks stunning, and i'm sure Nintendo has a few more surprises. I think the Wii will remain a first party driven machine, while 3rd party companies continue to support Sony and Microsoft, running from the Wii like whipped dogs after the colossal failure of 3rd party product on the Nintendo console in 2008 and 2009. Nintendo's portable market seems to exist in a perpetual vacuum, and it ain't going anywhere.

On the 3rd party front, not much good news: A lot of formerly AAA product will hit with a dull thud in early 2010, titles like Bioshock 2, Alpha Protocol, Dark Void, Lost Planet 2 and even Splinter Cell: conviction will underperform, and reviewers, in the face of an onslaught of highly hyped, and critically lauded titles in late 2010, will be more stodgy. Darksiders will be a surprise performer, and Red Dead Redemption will do VERY well in April. Whatever Activison has planned with Call of Duty will perform well, but won't come close to Modern Warfare 2, and EA's Battlefield: Bad Company 2 and their Medal of Honor reboot will do well, if not exceptionally. EA, as a company, will see some better returns on titles like Dead Space 2, Army of Two: The 40th Day, Dante's Inferno, and the aforementioned Bad Company 2 and Medal of Honor, but neither will approach Call of Duty/Halo levels of popularity. Studios will continue to shutter offshoots and the casual boom will die a welcome, fitting death. While platforms like the iPhone and Android will continue to thrive, the output from major studios will shrink like their profits, while more and more indie developers take advantage. Many of the titles now scheduled for "early 2010" will see further delays into summer and next fall. Fall 2010 will be solid, with a few exceptional offerings, but it won't come close to the level of critically acclaimed stuff that came out in 2009 or 2007, which have been the best two years (for quality) of this generation.

The plastic junk glut is officially over - you'll still see your music games, but i think Activision will scale back to their core Guitar Hero franchise again, abandoning low performers like Tony Hawk Ride, Band Hero, and DJ Hero, and Harmonix will continue to focus on their Rock Band store while dumping Rock Band: Green Day onto the market. I doubt it will receive the same push that The Beatles did.

[Dark Knight]

I hear rumors that since vinyl has made a comeback, you may see a resurgence of..... 8 track!!!!!!

[Dan Mancini]

I hear rumors that since vinyl has made a comeback, you may see a resurgence of..... 8 track!!!!!!

I'm currently developing an 8-track simulator iPhone app that adds background hiss and mid-song track changes to iTunes playlists.

[Steve T Power]

I hear rumors that since vinyl has made a comeback, you may see a resurgence of..... 8 track!!!!!!

I'm currently developing an 8-track simulator iPhone app that adds background hiss and mid-song track changes to iTunes playlists.

It's in my download queue now!

[Dan Mancini]

Red Dead Redemption will do VERY well in April.

Testify. GTA doesn't really float my boat but, holy crap, RDR looks like it may be the most awesome thing EVAH. Milieu is everything (or, if not everything, a lot).

[Steve T Power]

Red Dead Redemption will do VERY well in April.

Testify. GTA doesn't really float my boat but, holy crap, RDR looks like it may be the most awesome thing EVAH. Milieu is everything (or, if not everything, a lot).

The trailer that dropped yesterday was nothing shy of stunning. 4 minutes of concentrated awesome.

[Dan Mancini]

Red Dead Redemption will do VERY well in April.

Testify. GTA doesn't really float my boat but, holy crap, RDR looks like it may be the most awesome thing EVAH. Milieu is everything (or, if not everything, a lot).

The trailer that dropped yesterday was nothing shy of stunning. 4 minutes of concentrated awesome.

No doubt. Come release day, I fully plan to shoot a bandit and then have a whore draw me a bath while I pull on a bottle of whiskey.

[Steve T Power]

Red Dead Redemption will do VERY well in April.

Testify. GTA doesn't really float my boat but, holy crap, RDR looks like it may be the most awesome thing EVAH. Milieu is everything (or, if not everything, a lot).

The trailer that dropped yesterday was nothing shy of stunning. 4 minutes of concentrated awesome.

No doubt. Come release day, I fully plan to shoot a bandit and then have a whore draw me a bath while I pull on a bottle of whiskey.

I fully plan to swig a bottle of whiskey, sitting in a hot bath while a whore pulls on... wait... I really need to watch Deadwood again.

[Dave Johnson]

PS3: Will continue to grow, but can't see it overtaking anyone, especially when you look at its shocking third-place landing in November, even though it had a better marketing push, a vastly cheapened model, some kick-ass bundles and a top-shelf game in Uncharted 2. Less than half of the MW2 units sold were on PS3, which says that hardcore gamers (i.e., shooter fans) still prefer the 360 for that stuff. God of War 3 will be huge, though. Also, let's not forget that Sony has fully bought in to the motion control craze, too.

360: Still in second, though I honestly think Natal will move units. Staying power is another question, but I'm not sure how the PS3 wand--as impressive as it is techwise--will match Natal for hype. Halo Reach will be the game to beat in 2010 for sales.

Wii: Can't quite bring myself to care...

[Dimwitted]

Can anyone see machine fatigue setting in? People just not caring about the latest and greatest spec?

And will EA kill the industry by buying everything in sight and screwing it up? How about them not having a current golf game with the Woods debacle? Anyone see any new tech that will affect game[lay?

[Jon Mercer]

Less than half of the MW2 units sold were on PS3, which says that hardcore gamers (i.e., shooter fans)

What is it Greek Night tonight? Refer to that ilk as hardcore gamers again and eyemunna slap you.

[Steve T Power]

Will continue to grow, but can't see it overtaking anyone, especially when you look at its shocking third-place landing in November, even though it had a better marketing push, a vastly cheapened model, some kick-ass bundles and a top-shelf game in Uncharted 2. Less than half of the MW2 units sold were on PS3, which says that hardcore gamers (i.e., shooter fans) still prefer the 360 for that stuff. God of War 3 will be huge, though. Also, let's not forget that Sony has fully bought in to the motion control craze, too..

Sony isn't hitching their wagon to it for this year as Microsoft seems to be doing. Also the fact that it will be backwards compatible with existing software (Resident Evil 5!) adds a little something extra to consider a purchase worthwhile. Not that i'll be bothering. The whole motion control thing needs to die a horrible death.

[Dave Johnson]

Sony isn't hitching their wagon to it for this year as Microsoft seems to be doing.

Sony disagrees.

[Dan Mancini]

The whole motion control thing needs to die a horrible death.

Whatever you say, old man. In a decade or so when we're all shotgunning zombie simulations on our holodecks, you'll still be putzing around with your Sixaxis.

[Steve T Power]

Sony isn't hitching their wagon to it for this year as Microsoft seems to be doing.

Sony disagrees.

Read that the other day, and find it very hard to believe considering the product doesn't have a name. Sony's typical corporate synergy at work.

[mkiker2089]

The article itself even downplays motion control It mentions it as a "pillar" then moves on to talk about the PSN. The PSN itself is the pillar.

Besides, what do you expect them to say "we could care less if people buy it, it plays Blu Ray". Not likely.

I really don't see the Wii dying but hardware sales may plummet as they reach saturation of their core audience. Software will still be strong. At a certain point install base becomes more important than new users and the Wii is near it.

I also thing that console users are less likely to accept a new model BC or not. The gamecube died with the Wii, the Xbox with the 360. It would have to splinter the market if they make a Wii HD. Handheld users seem to play along better because the BC usually doesn't feel cheapened. Heck even the PS2 has hurt the PS3 which goes to show that BC doesn't usually help long term. Almost fatally so in fact.

[Dan Mancini]

Sony isn't hitching their wagon to it for this year as Microsoft seems to be doing.

Sony disagrees.

Read that the other day, and find it very hard to believe considering the product doesn't have a name. Sony's typical corporate synergy at work.

I've heard rumors it'll be called the Dildonic 3000. It's sure to cut into the Wii's current hold on the female gamer demographic.

[Dunnyman]

Actually, listing Nintendo among my clients, the Wii is poised for a huge market share gain....in education and training usage. They are currently developing a huge amount of software to use it to train assembly workers, repair techs, packaging, etc, etc. They even have surgery simulations with it now. The gaming people however, still aren't as wowed by it as they used to be.
The interesting thing I see in gaming is the involvement of Fender, Gibson, DW, etc. developing new and more sophisticated game controllers for the various RockBand games. I also predict that those games will be used to eventually teach actual guitar, bass, drums and other instruments. Their ability to help people learn the proper notes for singing is already quite good, it's just a matter of time.
I love my BluRay, but there's enough hardware out there to suggest that the death of physical media isn't too far off. I have a WD Live, that allows me to stream my entire media library effortlessly from my Mac, and it handles HD just fine. I ripped a BluRay to test it, and you can't see the difference between the two at all. Sure, storage space is a minor issue, but that technology is already moving at light speed and the computer people are suggesting that 3 and 4 terabyte hard drives will be seen within a year. I recently bumped up my system to 8 TB at a fraction of the cost that 1 TB did four years ago. Now that's streaming from my system, but flash drives are getting bigger and cheaper as well, and simply transporting your media via them is catching on, and the WD Live also has USB capabilities as well. My buddy has a movie he wants to watch, but we're going to hang at my place? No problem.
Can you imagine trying to transport a 9 gig movie back in, oh, I dunno, 1997? When the top of the line hard drives were 6 gigs?

[Dimwitted]

I still say that discless media is far, far away. Early adopters are having a great time with streaming media but if everyone tries to jump on the bandwagon it's going to fail, bigtime. None of the majors seem to be in any great hurry to have the large pipes to the home. Once you get last mile fibre, then it's great and there'll be no question what the future will hold but as of now, I think it's interesting but not a good revenue model.
That said, watch out for Blockbuster. If it dies, it looks like the Netflix model and Redbox might be the future, certainly in the U.S. Rest of the world? Not so much. It would be ironic if the Mom & Pop video store came back, wouldn't it?